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Great Plains' Historical Stability Vulnerable to Future ChangesSeptember 27, 2007
A survey of long-term trends in population, farm income, and crop production in the agricultural Great Plains concludes that threats to society and the environment are counterbalanced by "surprising stability" and the potential for short- and medium-term sustainability. The survey, published in the October 2007 issue of BioScience, finds that technological advances--improved crop varieties, irrigation, and fertilizer use, among others--have enabled greatly increased production of major crops and allowed rural populations to remain stable over the past 50 years, even as metropolitan populations have soared. Rural counties with extensive irrigation have had slight increases in populations, although less-irrigated counties, which offer fewer opportunities for farm-associated work, have had a slight decrease. The Great Plains' population is nonetheless falling behind that of the country as a whole, and the area's proportion of people over age 55 has grown rapidly. The authors, William J. Parton and Dennis Ojima, of Colorado State University, and Myron P. Gutmann, of the University of Michigan, note that the growth in crop productivity has had substantial impacts on the environment, including loss of soil carbon and high nitrate runoff, especially in irrigated areas. Farms have become more dependent on government subsidies to meet the increased costs of agricultural inputs and fuel. Plans to develop biofuels could benefit agricultural counties, but higher crop prices also threaten income from livestock production, and could accelerate soil erosion while reducing soil carbon. Declining aquifers and rising fuel costs represent a potentially worrisome trend, since both will add to the cost of irrigation. The complete list of research articles in the October 2007 issue of BioScience is as follows: Long-term Trends in Population, Farm Income, and Crop Production in the Great Plains Evolutionary Perspectives on Seed Consumption and Dispersal by Fishes A Framework for Understanding Conservation Development and Its Ecological Implications Applying Ecological Risk Assessment to Environmental Accidents: Harlequin Ducks and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Dualism, Science, and Statistics ContactJennifer Williams
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